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Arbitrage Betting System

4/3/2022

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Some betting systems are risk-free. These don’t return a lot of profit but for many punters like these systems as it can be a reliable outcome. While other systems that carry more risk will have the potential to have higher payouts. Arbitrage betting is where you bet for and against the same outcome in a sporting event on different. The Arbitrage Betting System is based on scientific principles used by physicists and other scientists to reduce uncertainty when applied to future events. It easily beats any casino games offering even-money bets such as roulette Imagine Beating Roulette, Baccarat, Craps and Even Blackjack Using a System Based on the Same Principles Used to.

and bends it to your advantage ..... The Sports Arbitrage System for placing arbitrage trades is simple and easy to follow. It can be used for most sports bets including racing in the US and around the world.

Performing the calculations necessary for this arbitrage system is relatively straightforward especially if you stick to decimal odds eg 2.5, 3.0 etc. There are numerous conversion charts to be found on the Internet to convert from fractional and even US odds.

First off we need to change the decimal odds to a percentage which is achieved by the simple expedient of dividing 100 by the odds eg 100/2.5 = 40%. Do the same for all the odds in your chosen event and add them together. If the result is less than 100 then an arbitrage system trade is possible.

In arbitrage betting, baseball can be both a blessing and a curse. With a bit of careful manual searching, some highly profitable arbs can be found, but the rules surrounding pitcher changes can catch out inexperienced arbers.

Suppose we are considering an arbitrage system bet from a tennis match between Nadal and Federer. One bookie quotes Nadal as 2.0 = 50.00% and another quotes Federer as 2.1 = 47.62% so adding the two percentages gives 97.62.

Arbitrage System Using Bot

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This principal works for any number of possible outcomes for as long as the total percentage remains below 100%.

To continue the tennis example consider 4 players to win the womens French Open at the semi final stage. Caroline Wozniacki 2.50 Kim Clijsters 3.75 Venus Williams 6.00 Victoria Azarenka 8.00.

Combining the percentages 40% + 26.67% + 16.67% + 12.5% we get 95.84%. ie staking £95.84 the return would be £100 giving a risk free profit of £4.16. Calculating the stakes for each player is simple: £40 on Caroline Wozniacki, £26.67 on Kim Clijsters, £16.67 on Venus Williams and £12.50 on Victoria Azarenka.

It's worth considering rounding the stakes up or down so as not to alert the bookmakers that this is an arbitrage system bet especially if large sums are involved.

Also look for opportunities in the more obscure events to steer clear of opportunities in mainstream sports which are monitored by arbitrage system betting software and likely to be snapped up in the blink of an eye.

Can horse racing ever result in guaranteed winnings? Yes, if you know about sports Arbitrage. Instead of going through one bookmaker to bet that each horse will win, however, you will place different bets with a different outlet.

The theory behind arbitrage betting is that you will profit by arranging your bets to take advantage of the best odds offered by various bookmakers. By taking each individual outcome into consideration with the best odds possible, arbitrage betting is often referred to as surebetting - offering a sure way for gamblers to make money regardless of which horse wins.

Horse racing events are held all year round, at venues located around the world. Because of the ability to find races at almost any time, you can place bets anytime. Once you get involved with horse racing, you may find that you have your own preferences over when to bet. For instance, you may find that you more enjoy betting when there are live races (as opposed to races simulcast from remote locations) at your local track.

In the UK the racing is split into 2 main seasons - the winter for jumps racing (National Hunt) and flat racing on turf in the summer. Although inevitably there is a certain overlap. Also All Weather racing (on synthetic tracks) which are largely unaffected by weather conditions can be raced throughout the year. It is often said that the all weather racing is the most reliable in terms of results statistics as conditions remain the same for most races.

'In the USA you might also find that springtime offers the most exciting betting opportunities. Running between early May and early June, the Triple Crown is considered the most popular series of all horse races. Including the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, you will have additional betting opportunities by following the same horses from race to race and betting against the odds that one horse will win all three events. However this has only occurred a handful of times in more than one hundred years.'

Using Arbitrage Systems which are similar to risk free betting except that the bets are struck in different markets eg with Betfair and a bookmaker - but make sure you check the rules as Wes goes on to point out:

'There are a wide variety of bookmakers who would love to accept your bet for a horse race. Figuring out which bookmakers to use, whether you are looking to make straight, exotic or Arbitrage System bets, takes finesse.

First, look carefully at the policies a bookmaker uses. Is there a minimum bet amount? During which timing will they accept bets? How fast are payouts made? All of these factors are very important to the health of your bet.

Next, evaluate the bookmaker’s reputation. Beware of fly-by-night operations because you may place a bet and never see a return even when you win. Ask around, directly or virtually, to see what feedback is available for the bookmaker you are evaluating.

Finally, look at the ease in placing a bet with a specific bookmaker. Is it as simple as a click of your mouse – or will you have to jump through hoops just to pick a horse? Unless the odds offered are phenomenal, it is smarter to stick with bookmakers who make the arbitrage system process easier.

Events That Affect Race Results

Like any sporting event, horse racing can be volatile. Any number of events can affect the outcome of races. By being aware of those circumstances, you can place smarter arbitrage system bets – or at least be prepared when a situation arises. Or focus on political bets where the market is less volatile.

First, look at the overall health and racing schedule of a horse. Is one particular horse run in race after race, without adequate time for rest? This will probably not be the strongest competitor to bet upon. Also look at the racing history of a horse, are they racing against horses of comparable ability or has their owner placed them in a race against obviously stronger or weaker opponents? This can greatly change the outcome of a race.

Next, look at the jockey that will be running the horse, and how long they have been working with that horse. Newer horse-jockey relationships can be rockier than established partnerships. Also, look to the temperament of the jockey - how hard do they push their horses? Are they known for last minute runs or fades?

Finally, expect the unexpected. On any given day, the healthiest of horses can break a leg. At random times, a previously solid jockey-horse team can fall apart for no reason and ruin a perfectly sound arbitrage system bet. Slight condition changes at the track can throw a monkey wrench in the outcome. Like any other betting opportunity, never put all of your eggs in one basket & expect the unexpected, then you can bet smart.

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Arbitrage betting promises risk free returns - the Holy Grail of gambling - so is naturally a very popular topic within the betting community, but how does arbitrage betting work? We have laid out everything you need to know; this is arbitrage betting explained.

Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting exploits the opportunity to place proportionate bets on each outcome of the same event with differing bookmakers so that a profit is guaranteed regardeless of the outcome.

What is Arbitrage betting?

Any type of risk-based activity is a search for price-differential. If you can buy widgets from Factory A for €10 and sell them to Retailer B for €15 you can pocket €5 risk free.

A huge proportion of profit generated by the investment banking industry is based on this simple principle - in much more complex form - across a dizzying array of commodities and assets.

Arbitrage betting by comparison is much closer to the simple widget analogy above - it is used by many gamblers to successfully make risk-free profit.

To explain how arbitrage works and why Pinnacle is happy to accept it, we created this short video:

Example of an arbitrage bet

The best way to explain how arbitrage works is through a simple example. Take the odds on a tennis match between Player A and Player B offered by two hypothetical bookmakers - A & B - as illustrated in the table below.

Player 1Player 2MarginStakeProfit
Odds Bookmaker A (BA)1.3003.930102.4%26.544.30
Odds Bookmaker B (BB)1.4202.900104.9%73.464.31
Arbitrage (Combining Player 1/BB & Player 2/BA)1.4203.93095.9% (4.1% profit margin)100

The margin is indicated for each bookmaker i.e. the edge in their favour (read this article to understand how to calculate betting margins). By cross-matching the odds from Player 2 at Bookmaker A (3.930) with those for Player 1 at Bookmaker B, (1.420) the margin is in the bettor's€ favour providing a guaranteed return of 4.1% (100 - 95.9 = 4.1). Importantly, your stake needs to be in proportion to the odds as illustrated, which gives a guaranteed return of €4.30 whether Player 1 or Player 2 wins.

This principle can apply to any betting market, beyond just two selections, including spread betting, while it also has wide application in live betting where arbitrage opportunities are constantly available by Backing and Laying in a constantly shifting market. You can also use free bonuses in an arbitrage bet to lock in a guaranteed profit, but the conditions that apply are restrictive.

Sports Betting System Pdf

Why do arbitrage opportunities occur?

Though you may be simply interested in profiting from arbitrage, it is important for context to understand why arbitrage opportunities occur. These are the main reasons:

  • Bookmakers differing in opinion

  • Bookmakers taking a specific position or running a promotion

  • Bookmakers slow to move their odds or simply making a mistake

The first of these is the most common, and is particularly relevant in relation to Pinnacle as our risk-management is regarded as among the best online. As a result, our odds feature more than any bookmaker in arbitrage opportunities, even more so because we don't offer betting promotions.

Potential pitfalls of arbitrage betting

If at this point you are itching to get out there making free money from arbitrage betting, now is time for a reality check, as there is no such thing as a free lunch. Though the mathematical logic of arbitrage is sound there are risks associated with the process of finding and successfully placing the required bets. Here are the most important things to consider before starting out:

Stake limitation & account closure

Limits vary at different bookmakers, which may hinder your ability to properly exploit an arbitrage opportunity. This isn't an issue at Pinnacle, as we offer the highest limits online.

Some bookmakers dislike arbitrage players as they don't fit their desired player profile. As Pinnacle has a unique business model based on volume, we don't care what the betting intent is - we are arbitrage friendly.

Bet cancellation

Bookmakers can cancel bets where mistakes have been made, which would leave you exposed on the other side(s). This can easily wipe out your profits accrued over a long period. Take a close look at the Rules for each bookmaker you intend to use for arbitrage.

Complexity

Sport Arbitrage Trading

Arbitrage betting system

To fully exploit arbitrage betting, you must have a huge number of funded bookmaker accounts, as well as the time to take full advantage. This involves significant organisation and effort. Many practice arbitrage betting for a living (financial arbitrage) in which time invested must also be measured as a cost. There are many services out there that will do the hard work for you of finding arbs, but they will charge a fee which eats into your profit, and do not eliminate all the risks outlined here.

Fleeting Arb Opportunities

Bookmakers are constantly updating their odds, often using their competitors as a benchmark. As a result arbitrage opportunities can last seconds rather than minutes so time of the essence, and when humans are time-pressured errors inevitably occur. Arbitrage software systems can help in this regard, but cannot guarantee that you won't be left with a naked position - in other words, you cannot cover all the bet options so will incurr risk.

Value betting vs Arbitrage betting

Some bettors argue that arbitrage simply exposes where bookmakers have incorrectly priced a market, and therefore the value is in solely betting with the 'wrong odds'. This idea is much more complex that it appears, and we have a dedicated an entire article to the arbitrage vs value betting argument.

Arbitrage Betting - Getting Started

If you have got this far you should have enough information to consider arbitrage betting. If you want to take the next step then you'll need a Pinnacle account, because having the most competitive odds online along with an arbitrage friendly policy means that Pinnacle features in arbitrage betting opportunities more than any other bookmaker.